Update as of October 16, 2020
Get to know the real facts behind the data in El Paso County and Colorado.
Data source: El Paso Public Health and Colorado Public Health
Get to know the real facts behind the data in El Paso County and Colorado.
Data source: El Paso Public Health and Colorado Public Health
17 thoughts on “Coronavirus Weekly Reporting”
The covid facts for Colorado and Colorado Springs are absolutely correct. It is how the media, our lame mayor, and weak governor reports those numbers that strike fear in the meak.
Amen!
Hi, Your numbers don’t quite correspond with the web site. But, there is an interesting thing I noticed when comparing them. On the very first slide, the El Paso County Health Department reports 4,028 cases and 126 deaths since 3-5-20. Can you explain why they report only 2,895 people “recovered?” Can they? My math: 4,028 – 126 = 3,902. Shouldn’t the number of “recovered” be 3,902? What happened to the remaining 1,007 (3,902 – 2, 895 = 1,007)?
It’s possible their status is yet to be determined (still have it and haven’t died or recovered or don’t yet have the official info).
They still haven’t recovered – in other words, they still have COVID-19. Recovery is days to weeks.
That missing 1,007 are likely known to be still active cases (Neither recovered or dead). They’ll be added to the respective count as they die or they reach 14 days after diagnosis without death, whether they retest or not.
Donn T. Cairns – Presumably, the difference is still sick. However, we’ve learned this past week that positive test results are being reported as cases even though cases can have multiple positive test results.
As of 07/24/2020 ?
4028 Cases reported (As if these are cases and not positive tests)
126 Deaths reported
2895 Recovered (As reported)
1007 Still sick? (If they didn’t die, they either recovered or they are still sick)
413 Hospitalizations (As reported)
594 Sick but not hospitalized? (More sick not hospitalized than are)
41% Fraction of sick hospitalized
As of 7/25/2020:
49528 Tests
4028 Cases reported
8.1% Fraction of tests resulted in cases if each positive test result is counted as a case
JD and Dan: Thanks for the info. I still have trouble believing the rhetoric vs the actual numbers.
I want to talk about the city’s idea of adding a 10 cent tax for plastic grocery bags. City Councilmember Avila seems to think it’s a good idea to pinch all of us a little more. 60% of the funds raised go to them for their “cleanup projects” and 40% goes to the stores providing the bags. Since the store providing the bags are private businesses, I am sure they are thanful she wants to let them have some of the money for buying and providing the bags int eh first place. Who really thinks letting these clowns make the decisions in our lives is a GOOD thing? If a business wants to provide plastic bags, then that is the business owners call, not some liberal city councilmember with illusions of grandeur. I find it amazing that we, the people, have to constantly push back and tell these people “no”. At any rate, according to AM 740 KVOR, on 29 July from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. we are told we can watch the meeting online. At some point enough of us will just pack our bags and leave town. If enough of us do it, then they will have LESS money to work with in the end. One year ago, the Mayor on Richard Randall’s radio show, said he would let the Grocery Stores decide this, NOW, they are saying 6 cents of the 10 cents would go to “clean the city”. Do any of you believe this? I HAD to put this on here the way I did, as there is no option to start this discussion.
You cannot use the total populations in the calculation of the chance of dying, because the pandemic has not run its course; everyone has not been exposed, nor enough to achieve “herd immunity,” if there is such a thing. You should only use the latest number of recoveries and deaths. This is because you don’t know the outcome while someone still has it, only after they have totally recovered or died. So the chance of death = deaths / (deaths + recoveries).
From the chart above:
Total Cases 4012
Recovered Cases 3014
Deaths 120
Active Cases 878
El Paso County Population 720,403.00
Likelihood of COVID encounter 0.12% (active/population)
No. of encounters to get it 821
However, some estimate 80% of cases are unrecognized (and I’ve seen estimates as high as 90%)
Using 80% means there could be 5 times as many cases as are known
So your likelihood of an encounter may be more like 0.61% or 1 in 164
Still somewhat low odds. How many people do you talk to in a week?
But if you do get COVID, what are the consequences?
Average chance of dying = 120/3124 = 0.038 = 3.8 % or 1 in 26
However, from state data on 26 July for 60-69 years old (my age bracket):
You have a 1 in 4 chance of being hospitalized (24.92%)
I’ve read the average cost of a COVID hospitalization is $38,000. How good is your insurance?
You have a 1 in 17 chance of dying (5.41%)
So I to pose the “Dirty Hairy” question to you:
Do you feel lucky? Do you?
Are the consequences of the risks acceptable to you?
What this person said. You can’t just subtract percentages and call it a probability. Learn math.
thank you for your comments, we have updated how the numbers are illustrated.
For statistical purposes (and what the CDC uses) stating the percentage of COVID deaths should NOT be comparing the mortality rate to the entire population, but to compare it to the number of reported COVID cases. That’s what the CDC has done for this pandemic and all pandemics, as well as determining the mortality rate for the common flu. By reporting the COVID deaths the way this organization is doing, is minimizing the severity of the pandemic
thank you for your comments, we have updated and changed how we illustrate the numbers
Good numbers, let’s keep them low. Wear mask and ignore the people who fear the mask.
Here are state numbers https://covid19.colorado.gov/data
Amen!